Climate Impact:
CCU-Based Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Model Dashboard

Core metrics at a glance. Forecast year 2035 unless noted.

* Avoided emissions shown assume 1% market capture rate.

Projecting to Market Scale

At 18.8 EJ of global aviation energy demand (2035, IEA STEPS) and a unit impact of 75.15 Mt CO2e per EJ, at just 1% market capture, the avoided emissions would total approximately 14.1 million tonnes CO2e per year. Aviation accounts for roughly 2-3% of global CO2 emissions and cannot easily electrify, making drop-in fuel alternatives critical.

Aviation energy demand is projected to grow steadily, from 13.3 EJ (2025) to 18.8 EJ (2035) under the IEA Stated Policies Scenario, reflecting continued growth in global air travel. The unit impact remains constant at 75.15 Mt CO2e/EJ across the forecast period, as both baseline jet fuel and the CCU-SAF solution maintain stable lifecycle intensities.

The technology uses electrochemical processes to convert captured CO2 into syngas, which is then processed via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis into liquid hydrocarbons that closely resemble conventional jet fuel. The resulting SAF is a drop-in replacement, compatible with existing aircraft engines and fueling infrastructure.

Key Findings

1. 1

   A large per-unit reduction for a hard-to-abate sector

   At 75.15 Mt CO2e avoided per EJ (86% reduction), CCU-based SAF represents a compelling decarbonization pathway for aviation. Unlike ground transport, long-haul aviation cannot readily switch to batteries or hydrogen, making drop-in synthetic fuels critical.

2. 2

   Drop-in compatibility is the key advantage

   The Fischer-Tropsch process produces liquid hydrocarbons that closely resemble conventional jet fuel, requiring no modifications to existing aircraft engines or airport fueling infrastructure. This eliminates the massive capital expenditure and fleet turnover that other decarbonization pathways would require.

3. 3

   Growing market amplifies the opportunity

   Aviation energy demand is projected to grow 41% from 13.3 EJ (2025) to 18.8 EJ (2035) as global air travel expands. Unlike sectors where the addressable market is stable or shrinking, aviation's growth trajectory means the emissions reduction opportunity increases each year.

4. 4

   Production scale and cost remain the bottleneck

   While the lifecycle emissions reduction is substantial, CCU-based SAF production requires significant energy inputs for CO2 capture and electrochemical conversion. Scaling production to meaningfully displace conventional jet fuel will depend on renewable electricity costs, carbon capture infrastructure, and policy support such as SAF blending mandates.

Methodology & Data Provenance

Data Quality Assessment

References & Resources

• Koi Data & Methodology Overview
• Koi Avoided Emissions: Terms & Concepts
• IEA World Energy Outlook - Stated Policies Scenario
• ICAO - Sustainable Aviation Fuels
• Full Model Datasheet (Koi platform)

Published by Rho Impact. Data sourced from the Koi Data Lake. Last updated March 2026.