Climate Impact:
Ground-Source Heat Pumps for Building Heat

Model Dashboard

Core metrics at a glance. Forecast year 2035 unless noted.

* Avoided emissions shown assume 35.4% market capture.

Projecting to Market Scale

At 53.0 Mt CO2e avoided per EJ and 14.2 EJ of natural-gas-fueled building heat in 2035, the addressable opportunity is large. Applying the net-zero aligned deployment path (35.4% market capture by 2035, based on IEA milestones) yields roughly 266 Mt CO2e of avoided emissions per year.

The addressable market shrinks over time by design: natural-gas-fueled heat falls from about 42% of building heat demand today toward 32% by 2030 under a net-zero pathway, as efficiency and electrification cut gas consumption. The figure here reflects the gas-heat demand that remains addressable in 2035.

Deployment is modeled to climb toward 55% capture by 2050 on the same IEA-aligned trajectory, so annual avoided emissions keep growing through the period. The solution's intensity also depends on grid carbon intensity, which the model scales using the IEA Announced Pledges Scenario.

Key Findings

1. 1

   A 79% cut in the emissions intensity of building heat

   At 53.0 Mt CO2e avoided per EJ of heat delivered (66.9 down to 13.9), ground-source heat pumps reduce the lifecycle emissions of building heat by 79% versus natural gas. Heating is one of the largest and least-electrified sources of building emissions, so a reduction of this size addresses a high-volume, hard-to-shift segment rather than a niche.

2. 2

   Efficiency comes from the ground, not combustion

   Ground-source heat pumps use the earth's stable subsurface temperatures to move heat rather than burn fuel, modeled here at a seasonal performance factor of 5.1 (about 50% better than a typical installed unit today). That efficiency, delivered as electricity, is what opens the gap versus a 90%-efficient gas boiler.

3. 3

   In 2035, net-zero deployment avoids roughly 266 Mt CO2e per year

   The model covers the natural-gas-fueled building heat projected to remain in 2035 (roughly 14.2 EJ). On a net-zero aligned deployment path (35.4% market capture in 2035, rising toward 55% by 2050 per IEA milestones), ground-source heat pumps would avoid about 266 Mt CO2e in that year. The per-unit avoided figure also grows over the period as the grid decarbonizes.

4. 4

   Upfront cost and installation are the bottleneck

   The reduction is large, but ground-loop drilling and installation are capital-intensive and disruptive, which is why several developers focus on faster, lower-cost drilling and pre-packaged systems. Realized impact depends on the pace of deployment and on continued grid decarbonization, since the solution's emissions track electricity intensity.

Methodology & Data Provenance

Data Quality Assessment

Companies working to create this future

References & Resources

• Koi Data & Methodology Overview
• Sevindik, S., Spataru, C., Domenech Aparisi, T., & Bleischwitz, R. (2021). A Comparative Environmental Assessment of Heat Pumps and Gas Boilers towards a Circular Economy in the UK. Energies, 14(11), 3027.
• IEA (2023). World Energy Outlook 2023. Paris: IEA.
• IEA. World Energy Outlook 2024 Free Dataset.
• IEA (2021). Net Zero by 2050.
• IEA. Heating (Buildings energy system).
• IEA (2023). CO2 emissions from buildings space and water heating by fuel, Net Zero Scenario, 2010-2030.
• IEA (2023). Buildings-related energy demand for heating and share by fuel, Net Zero Scenario, 2022-2030.
• Full Model Datasheet (Koi platform)

Published by Rho Impact. Data sourced from the Koi Data Lake. Last updated June 2026.