Climate Impact:
Low-Carbon Cement
How much avoided emissions does electrochemical low-carbon cement deliver if it displaces conventional portland cement? Cement made via low-temperature electrolysis carries a cradle-to-gate intensity of about 0.07 Mt CO2e per Mt, versus 0.53 Mt CO2e per Mt for cement under the IEA Reference Technology Scenario. That is roughly 0.46 Mt CO2e avoided per Mt of cement displaced, an 87% reduction in lifecycle emissions intensity. The gain comes from eliminating limestone calcination and the high-temperature kiln, the two largest emissions sources in conventional production. Against an addressable market of 4,662 Mt of cement in 2035, a 2.1% market-capture scenario implies about 45 Mt CO2e of avoided emissions per year.
0.46
Mt CO2e / Mt
4662
Mt (2035)
~45
Mt CO2e/yr (2.1% capture)
Model Dashboard
Core metrics at a glance. Forecast year 2035 unless noted.
Unit Impact (Avoided)
0.46
Mt CO2e / Mt
87% reduction vs baseline
Baseline Intensity
0.53
Mt CO2e / Mt
Cement production (RTS)
Solution Intensity
0.07
Mt CO2e / Mt
Cement production via low temperature electrolysis
Addressable Market (2035)
4662
Mt
Avoided Emissions (2.1% Capture)
~45.0
Mt CO2e (2035)
At 2.1% market capture
* Avoided emissions shown assume 2.1% market capture.
Baseline vs. Solution - Lifecycle Intensity
Baseline
Cement production (RTS)
0.53 Mt CO2e / Mt
Solution
Cement production via low temperature electrolysis
0.07 Mt CO2e / Mt
0.46 Mt CO2e avoided / Mt
87% reduction in lifecycle emissions intensity
Projecting to Market Scale
Global cement demand is large and growing with construction, reaching roughly 4,662 Mt by 2035 in the IEA Reference Technology Scenario. Because cement is a low-cost, high-volume commodity tied to infrastructure and housing, demand is relatively insensitive to price and is concentrated among a small number of very large producers.
Unit Impact
0.46
Mt CO2e / Mt
×
4662
Mt (2035)
×
2.1%
market capture
=
~45.0
Mt CO2e
The avoided-emissions projection applies a 2.1% market-capture scenario, benchmarked to the average market share held by the top twenty global cement producers. At about 0.46 Mt CO2e avoided per Mt of cement displaced, that share corresponds to roughly 45 Mt CO2e per year by 2035. The capture rate is an illustrative adoption assumption rather than a forecast, and the avoided-emissions total moves proportionally with it.
Low-temperature electrolysis is among the few cement routes that eliminate process emissions outright instead of capturing them after the fact, which positions it well if carbon prices, low-carbon procurement standards, or concrete mandates tighten. Realized impact will depend on access to abundant low-carbon electricity and on scaling from pilot to commercial volumes.
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Key Findings
- 1
87% lower emissions per tonne of cement
Cement produced via low-temperature electrolysis carries a cradle-to-gate intensity of about 0.07 Mt CO2e per Mt, against 0.53 Mt CO2e per Mt for cement under the IEA Reference Technology Scenario. That is roughly 0.46 Mt CO2e avoided for every Mt of conventional cement displaced, an 87% reduction. Cement is one of the largest single industrial sources of CO2, so a reduction of this magnitude per tonne is material at sector scale.
- 2
Avoids both calcination and the kiln
Conventional production heats limestone in kilns to make clinker, releasing CO2 directly from the chemical breakdown of limestone (calcination) on top of fuel combustion. The electrochemical route separates calcium-silicate feedstocks into lime and silicates at ambient temperature using renewable electricity, eliminating calcination and the high-temperature kiln. This removes the two largest emissions sources in the conventional pathway rather than abating them at the tailpipe.
- 3
Drop-in substitute for ordinary portland cement
The process yields a direct substitute for ordinary portland cement, so it can be used in existing concrete formulations without re-engineering downstream specifications or standards. That lowers a major adoption barrier facing many alternative binders. Compatibility with established supply chains is what makes meaningful market capture plausible rather than niche.
- 4
About 45 Mt CO2e per year at a 2.1% capture scenario
The addressable market is roughly 4,662 Mt of cement in 2035 under the Reference Technology Scenario. A market-capture scenario of 2.1%, benchmarked to the average share held by the top twenty global cement producers, implies on the order of 45 Mt CO2e of avoided emissions per year. The capture rate is an illustrative adoption assumption, not a forecast, and the avoided-emissions total scales linearly with it.
- 5
Dependent on cheap renewable power and scale-up
The emissions advantage rests on electrolysis powered by low-carbon electricity; on a high-carbon grid the benefit shrinks. The approach is also early-stage, with first commercial-scale plants only beginning to come online, so cost parity with conventional cement and reliable feedstock supply remain open questions. These are the principal risks to realizing the modeled reduction.
Methodology & Data Provenance
This model uses the Koi avoided emissions methodology: the difference in lifecycle GHG intensity between a baseline and a solution, multiplied by the addressable market to estimate total avoidable emissions.
Baseline: Cradle-to-gate GHG intensity of global cement production under the IEA Reference Technology Scenario (RTS). Cement acts as a binder in concrete and mortar. It is produced by heating limestone and other materials in a kiln to create clinker, which is then ground into cement. The main sources of emissions come from the CO2 released during the chemical transformation of limestone into clinker, as well as the high energy consumption required to operate the kiln. Emissions during the use phase, including negative emissions due to carbonation are excluded. End-of-life emissions are also excluded. The RTS reflects the outcome of current energy-related policies.
Solution: Cradle-to-gate GHG intensity of cement produced via an electrochemical process at ambient temperatures using renewable energy. In this process, electricity is used to convert calcium-silicate feedstocks into consituent minerals including lime and silicate. These are subsequently mixed to produce a drop-in substitite for ordinary portland cement. This production methods avoids CO2 emissions that occur during conventional production, particularly the calcination of limestone by heating in kilns that directly releases CO2.
Market: Global cement production in the IEA's Reference Technology Scenario (RTS). The RTS reflects the outcome of current energy-related policies.
Data Quality Assessment
Reviewed and confirmed by domain experts with primary-source verification.
Reviewed and confirmed by domain experts with primary-source verification.
Reviewed and confirmed by domain experts with primary-source verification.
Reviewed and confirmed by domain experts with primary-source verification.
Companies working to create this future
References & Resources
- Hottle et al. (2022), Environmental Life-Cycle Assessment of Concrete Produced in the United States, Journal of Cleaner Production
- Sublime Systems (2023), Life Cycle Assessment Validating its Electrified Cement Manufacturing Process Enables >90% Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction
- IEA (2017), Energy Technology Perspectives 2017, IEA, Paris
- Global Cement (2012), Top 20 Global Cement Companies
- Koi Data & Methodology Overview
- Full Model Datasheet (Koi platform)
Published by Rho Impact. Data sourced from the Koi Data Lake. Last updated June 2026.
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